| This means that there is no sure-fire
way to predict the handicapped winner of a match, and if you continually
act on the advice of anyone telling you differently without employing
some type of “mitigation” tactic, you will slowly but surely lose all
your Base Bank.
The Bookies have eliminated the
opportunity for a Draw call with AHB, so there are only 2 possible calls
to make: a win, either for the Home Team or the Away Team. This, of
course, has removed the possibility of the Draw as an alternative call
for use as a “hedging” technique, which is why mitigation tactics are
necessary.
The Odds on offer to you for AHB are not
1 for 1, as they are when betting on red or black on the roulette table,
but slightly reduced (on average about 0.95 returned for a win, against
every 1 laid out). The Odds you get from the Bookmaker are therefore
very similar to those when you play on a roulette table having 2 zeros
(the American system) instead of the 1-zeroed European table.
For me, the main problem with AHB is
that there is no chance of being able to employ a proper “selection”
method for the match choices, and so winning very much comes down simply
to Lady Luck. The reality therefore is that if you use an unstructured
staking method with AHB you will inevitably lose more than you win.
However, so many people enjoy this type of betting today that I feel
some sound advice on a staking strategy needs to be offered. But it has
to be stressed that it isn’t an easy topic to deal with, so bear with me
please!
With AHB, the only way I have found any
chance of winning more than I lose is to apply the same type of
betting/staking system as is best for roulette. My preferred system for
roulette is the one known as the “1-3-2-6” Staking Plan. It is a
“protected progressive” staking gambit that assumes, where the chances
of getting the call right are near enough 50/50, that it would be
possible to win four times in a row often enough to have you winning
overall. If you don’t understand how this bet works, then you need to
read my earlier article specifically dealing with this.
To apply the 1-3-2-6 Staking Plan to AHB
is nowhere near as easy as it is for roulette (where many spins take
place every hour over long stretches of time). AHB is generally
available only for prime Saturday and Sunday matches, where the kick-off
times all occur within a very short time frame each day. It’s true that
all you need for a full winning cycle of a 1-3-2-6 bet is just 4 stages
of betting, but if you have to restart the cycle a few times because you
incurred losses you will need more betting stages to work with.
The following is how to apply the
1-3-2-6 Staking Plan for AHB purposes:
1. All started cycles of betting need to
be completed over the course of a weekend. For your own peace of mind,
don’t start a cycle you can’t complete until the following weekend!
2. To allow yourself the maximum number
of stages for betting purposes, you need to identify a series of matches
over the Saturday and Sunday plays where the starting times do not
overlap and such as will give you time to place ALL your next bets after
you have the results in.
3. What you must absolutely NOT do is
split your bet in any stage across 2 or more matches! The betting in
each stage of a cycle must be limited to just one match only. This comes
down to pure mathematical probabilities: a standard AHB call has a 50%
chance of coming good, but 2 AHB calls both coming good reduces the
chances to 25%.
4. If you so wish then, you may find
that you are able to select a sufficient number of matches to allow you
to run a number of cycles all at the same time, near enough in parallel
with each other.
5. Just as in roulette, to enable you to
keep proper track of where you stand in any given cycle the overall
stake would need to be based on a standardised value for your “Unit” (the
number of Dollars per 1 Unit that forms the basis of your overall stake)
at each and every stage of the cycle. Nothing stops you from increasing
the value of your “Unit” from one cycle to the next, of course, although
this should never be done as a “catch-up” plan.
The main thrust of this article is to
let you know that there are many staking plans around, and most of them
can be useful in the right betting situation (although the risks to your
Base Bank may be substantially increased with some of them). However,
when embarking on any betting with a roulette-type outcome - and AHB
definitely falls into that category - beware of any staking plan that
requires you to increase your stakes considerably if you lose.
With AHB in particular, what you must
really pay close attention to is choosing a staking plan that will make
you regular money on a consistent basis, and that will protect your Base
Bank as much as possible. I believe that the 1-3-2-6 Staking Plan is one
of the best systems for enabling you to achieve both those aims.
Although it may never make you a fortune, using it properly could enable
you to keep adding to your Base Bank instead of watching it rapidly
shrink.
About The Author
This article is written by
Woz Salmon, a specialist in risk analysis and mitigation
techniques, whose primary aim is to help the average football
bettor significantly improve his/her chances of winning more
money from the Bookies. Woz Salmon runs
http://www.predictawin.com. Helping you bet to win!
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